Will the King be Dethroned?

 A recent poll by Marquette law school shows Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann essentially tied for second place become Tommy Thompson in the Republican primary. While both Neumann and Hovde trailed by over 15 points, that is not the entire story. A full quarter of the people surveyed were undecided. Why is that so significant? Well Governor Thompson has been building his name ID and reputation across the state since before many voters were born. If someone is undecided, it is not likely that they would suddenly decide to swing over to Thompson. The only situation where I see that happening is if the Romney Effect comes into play. 


Romney became the Republican nominee for president not because he was a great candidate, but because people knew who he was, his campaign was structured and experienced, and he had the money to push through. There are few similarities between the US Senate field and the 2012 presidential field though. The presidential field saw many 2nd and 3rd tier candidates battling to become the anti-Romney, but none stood out. They each had a few weeks in the spotlight but none could pull it off. Some candidates ran too soon, some too late, some did not have the experience needed. In the end the race began and finished with Mitt Romney. 


If this was still 2010 I would almost expect the Romney Effect, but the climate has changed. In 2010 Republicans were begging Thompson to enter the Senate race. He did not. Instead businessman Ron Johnson was elected, and Wisconsin Republicans have been in love ever since. Thompson may have expected a rain check that just did not exist. The 2010 field was also considerably weaker. Johnson was the only candidate who seemed viable and thus faced little primary opposition (in big part due to receiving the party's nomination at the state convention). Jeff Fitzgerald, Mark Neumann and Eric Hovde are each strong enough candidates to be considered for the primary. Any one of them would come out well against the 2010 field. 


That being said Tommy Thompson is the front runner and this race is his to lose. The other candidates will need to kick their campaigns into high gear if they expect to dethrone the king. Tommy is still a living legend and will not be beaten easily. 


One last note, each poll has showed Tammy Baldwin losing to most republican candidates, but that same Marquette Law School poll showed her beating half the republicans and losing to Thompson by considerablly less. If the infighting, mud slinging, and expensive primary season continues ti break down the Republican party, they may find themselves in a world of hurt when the bloodied victor emerges from the primary to find a pristine, fully funded and tenacious Tammy Baldwin waiting for them.