SCOTUS and the Millennium of Aftermath

By now the entire country knows that The Affordable Care Act has been upheld essentially in its entirety. Chief Justice Roberts was the surprising swing vote in the 5-4 decision. In the past Justice Roberts would only side with the more liberal side of the bench to shore up an already decision. This would mean a 6-3 vote to show a unified court. However yesterday he single handily decided the vote of the bill. While republicans are fuming, they may soon realize that Justice Roberts actually made a constitutionally conservative vote. Instead of upholding the law through the commerce clause, which was initially made to regulate interstate trade but has been used to expand federal oversight into most facets of public life, he instead said that Congress had the authority through its taxing powers. That is a victory for strict constitutionalist and also a win for the President because he still keeps his healthcare bill. It is too soon to tell which way the two sided coin will land in November

While the decision is a confirmation of Obama's credibility, is is a potential a liability for his campaign. Until this ruling, I had no doubt in my mind that President Obama would be reelected. but I now see a distinct possibility that 2012 could usher in President Romney and here is why. If the law was struck down, Obama would be able to play the martyr who is willing to do hard things. Upholding the law may make him more credible, but it gives an arsenal of ammunition to Mitt Romney. Hard the law been struck down Romney would need to explain how he would fix the healthcare problem which both sides of the ailse admit exists. Now Romney can raise the flag of repeal and bring independent voters who oppose the law to his side. One concern with him as a candidate was that the conseravtive base would not embrace someone who had been so moderate in the past. Romney has done well to shore up that base and this ruling may have pushed him over the edge.

Now this blog is Cheesehead Politics and my focus is Wisconsin politics which typically means the US Senate race right now, but some issues are so transcendent that every elected official in the state will release a statement on it. Yesterday I was able to see Mark Neumann at the state capital and listen to his reaction and afterwards listen in on a Eric Hovde press conference call. Statements from Tommy Thompson and Tammy Baldwin come from emails released by their campaigns. 

Neumann: Much of what Neumann said was typical conservative talking points. His chief concern in the campaign is repealing 'Obamacare'. The fight is not over and he cleared up confusion by stating the Congress could still repeal the law. Apparently some people thought a SCOTUS ruling meant that the law was permanent, it is not. His second concern is balancing the budget.

Hovde: In the conference call Hovde answered questions about the ruling. Again he stuck with the conservative line. Hovde did mention the economic backlash of the bill since it took into account 10 years of revenue for the law when really it would not have that much financial support initially. Beyond that he was still 'digesting' the ruling. 

Thompson: Released a statement "Obamacare can still be repealed by Congress - as long as we win a US Senate majority in November. I can deliver this win for Republicans, and I am repeal-ready and will work to replace this destructive mandate with intelligent, market-based solutions."

He then followed up with an email attacking Congresswoman Baldwin's support of the law. This week has not been the best for Thompson though. The Club for Growth has been launching ads about Thompson's previous support of a bill similar to the Affordable Care Act. While Tommy is very firm in his opposition and promises to repeal the law on day one, quotes from the past may continue to haunt him in this campaign. 

Baldwin: Released a statement applauding the independent courts decision and went on to talk about how it would help those currently without care. She then transitioned to attacking the Republican candidates on their opposition to the decision. Each of these candidates essentially stuck to party line talking points.