SCOTUS and the Millennium of Aftermath

By now the entire country knows that The Affordable Care Act has been upheld essentially in its entirety. Chief Justice Roberts was the surprising swing vote in the 5-4 decision. In the past Justice Roberts would only side with the more liberal side of the bench to shore up an already decision. This would mean a 6-3 vote to show a unified court. However yesterday he single handily decided the vote of the bill. While republicans are fuming, they may soon realize that Justice Roberts actually made a constitutionally conservative vote. Instead of upholding the law through the commerce clause, which was initially made to regulate interstate trade but has been used to expand federal oversight into most facets of public life, he instead said that Congress had the authority through its taxing powers. That is a victory for strict constitutionalist and also a win for the President because he still keeps his healthcare bill. It is too soon to tell which way the two sided coin will land in November

While the decision is a confirmation of Obama's credibility, is is a potential a liability for his campaign. Until this ruling, I had no doubt in my mind that President Obama would be reelected. but I now see a distinct possibility that 2012 could usher in President Romney and here is why. If the law was struck down, Obama would be able to play the martyr who is willing to do hard things. Upholding the law may make him more credible, but it gives an arsenal of ammunition to Mitt Romney. Hard the law been struck down Romney would need to explain how he would fix the healthcare problem which both sides of the ailse admit exists. Now Romney can raise the flag of repeal and bring independent voters who oppose the law to his side. One concern with him as a candidate was that the conseravtive base would not embrace someone who had been so moderate in the past. Romney has done well to shore up that base and this ruling may have pushed him over the edge.

Now this blog is Cheesehead Politics and my focus is Wisconsin politics which typically means the US Senate race right now, but some issues are so transcendent that every elected official in the state will release a statement on it. Yesterday I was able to see Mark Neumann at the state capital and listen to his reaction and afterwards listen in on a Eric Hovde press conference call. Statements from Tommy Thompson and Tammy Baldwin come from emails released by their campaigns. 

Neumann: Much of what Neumann said was typical conservative talking points. His chief concern in the campaign is repealing 'Obamacare'. The fight is not over and he cleared up confusion by stating the Congress could still repeal the law. Apparently some people thought a SCOTUS ruling meant that the law was permanent, it is not. His second concern is balancing the budget.

Hovde: In the conference call Hovde answered questions about the ruling. Again he stuck with the conservative line. Hovde did mention the economic backlash of the bill since it took into account 10 years of revenue for the law when really it would not have that much financial support initially. Beyond that he was still 'digesting' the ruling. 

Thompson: Released a statement "Obamacare can still be repealed by Congress - as long as we win a US Senate majority in November. I can deliver this win for Republicans, and I am repeal-ready and will work to replace this destructive mandate with intelligent, market-based solutions."

He then followed up with an email attacking Congresswoman Baldwin's support of the law. This week has not been the best for Thompson though. The Club for Growth has been launching ads about Thompson's previous support of a bill similar to the Affordable Care Act. While Tommy is very firm in his opposition and promises to repeal the law on day one, quotes from the past may continue to haunt him in this campaign. 

Baldwin: Released a statement applauding the independent courts decision and went on to talk about how it would help those currently without care. She then transitioned to attacking the Republican candidates on their opposition to the decision. Each of these candidates essentially stuck to party line talking points.  

Will the King be Dethroned?

 A recent poll by Marquette law school shows Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann essentially tied for second place become Tommy Thompson in the Republican primary. While both Neumann and Hovde trailed by over 15 points, that is not the entire story. A full quarter of the people surveyed were undecided. Why is that so significant? Well Governor Thompson has been building his name ID and reputation across the state since before many voters were born. If someone is undecided, it is not likely that they would suddenly decide to swing over to Thompson. The only situation where I see that happening is if the Romney Effect comes into play. 


Romney became the Republican nominee for president not because he was a great candidate, but because people knew who he was, his campaign was structured and experienced, and he had the money to push through. There are few similarities between the US Senate field and the 2012 presidential field though. The presidential field saw many 2nd and 3rd tier candidates battling to become the anti-Romney, but none stood out. They each had a few weeks in the spotlight but none could pull it off. Some candidates ran too soon, some too late, some did not have the experience needed. In the end the race began and finished with Mitt Romney. 


If this was still 2010 I would almost expect the Romney Effect, but the climate has changed. In 2010 Republicans were begging Thompson to enter the Senate race. He did not. Instead businessman Ron Johnson was elected, and Wisconsin Republicans have been in love ever since. Thompson may have expected a rain check that just did not exist. The 2010 field was also considerably weaker. Johnson was the only candidate who seemed viable and thus faced little primary opposition (in big part due to receiving the party's nomination at the state convention). Jeff Fitzgerald, Mark Neumann and Eric Hovde are each strong enough candidates to be considered for the primary. Any one of them would come out well against the 2010 field. 


That being said Tommy Thompson is the front runner and this race is his to lose. The other candidates will need to kick their campaigns into high gear if they expect to dethrone the king. Tommy is still a living legend and will not be beaten easily. 


One last note, each poll has showed Tammy Baldwin losing to most republican candidates, but that same Marquette Law School poll showed her beating half the republicans and losing to Thompson by considerablly less. If the infighting, mud slinging, and expensive primary season continues ti break down the Republican party, they may find themselves in a world of hurt when the bloodied victor emerges from the primary to find a pristine, fully funded and tenacious Tammy Baldwin waiting for them. 

Neumann on the Trail

Today Mark Neumann continued his race for the US Senate by holding a small press event out side of Saint Mary's hospital in Madison. He said that even if Obamacare is not overturned by the Supreme Court (which he thinks it will be), that it must be struck down by the legislature. Beyond that it must be replaced with different health care reforms. When asked about a woman's right to choose versus the pro-life argument he turned the tables to the Constitution. To Neumann it is a matter of protecting the rights of religious groups as laid out in the 1st amendment. I look forward to more of his impromptu press events in the future.

The Un-Debate

Last night the Dane County Young Republicans held what was originally going to be a debate. I am not going to trash Governor Thompson too much for not showing up, I know scheduling conflicts do arise. As far as I can tell he had nothing else going on during those two hours. So instead of a back and forth discussion between the three top candidates in the race, we received two fifteen minute long stump speeches and a few pre-written questions. 


Before the main event started the Republican candidate for the 2nd Congressional seat spoke. Mr. Chad Lee previously ran against Tammy Baldwin for that same seat in 2010, but failed despite the Republican avalanche. Granted that district includes the entire city of Madison and it is unlikely to ever go Republican. That has not stopped Chad Lee from trying. His short speech spoke of his experience starting a cleaning business. While Mr. Lee seemed well put together and gave a good speech it appears that the district itself will keep him from having a real shot at victory. 


On to the main event: the 'forum'. The event was downgraded to a forum because only two of the four candidates in the race were in attendance. Neumann was the first to address the crowd of roughly 60 Young Republicans. He began by praising Walker and the efforts of those who campaigned against the recall. The rest of his fifteen minutes held his go to short stories. How he got kicked off the appropriations committee, how he claimed a formerly democratic congressional seat. The Q&A section was a little more interesting. Neumann asserted that a balance budget amendment is vital and the 10th amendment is key to restoring the countries finances. When asked about Iran he essentially said that he would research the topic more if in that situation and not use military force unless it was cost effective and quick. Probably not enough to keep the libertarian fringe happy but seemed hesitant to an extent. 


Overall Mark Neumann gave his rather typical stump speech. It was not necessarily bad, just slightly recycled yet still spotted with a few rounds of applause. His campaign appears to remaining at the same course it was on prior to the recall. I will be interested to see if it kicks into high gear as the primary draws near. 


Next was Eric Hovde. Mr. Hovde is still a very new face in Senate race. I imagine that a good majority of the crowd had not heard him speak in person and was curious about this guy who is willing to spend millions on t.v. ads. When Hovde began to speak the event had been going on for almost an hour already and the mood in the room was pretty boring. He did the whole "stand up and get the blood flowing" thing which seemed a little forced. He appeared to be a lot more energetic than the his last event I covered. 


His remarks stuck to the political outsider message. Hovde said that he had no desire to run for office but felt that he had to do something. He then laid out the eight point plan his campaign released last week. While I appreciate him giving the meat and potatoes approach to the forum, it did feel rushed. He had to fit the last 5 points into about a minutes time. The two big applause topics for him were auditing the fed and energy independence. During the Q&A section he took the questions from the moderator who was having trouble reading them. The crowd laughed and it showed how comfortable he was on stage. It also reminded me of how knew he is to this whole game. 


Eric Hovde did a good job at the forum, but is still struggling with name ID. He seems to be getting better at campaigning, but will need to be careful not to get too comfortable. It is a good thing he is willing to put so much of his own money into the race, he will need it.  

Student's Advocate: Congresswoman Baldwin

Congresswoman Baldwin has taken a unique focus on this US Senate race. Although summer is here and college students are bagging groceries and painting houses to pay the bills, she is working to keep their interest rates low. While the Republican primary has four candidates battling for the parties nomination, Baldwin is running essentially unopposed in the Democrat primary and is able to focus on the issues she wants to address. One such issue is the inevitable rise of student loan interest rates. Rates are set to double from 3.4% to 6.8% this July. It is part of a provision passed in 2007 that temporarily lowered the rates for five years.

Today in Milwaukee at MATC Congresswoman Baldwin continued her tour around Wisconsin colleges about this increase. She was introduced by the state chairmen of the College Democrats and accompanied by a dozen students holding Baldwin 2012 signs. The Congresswomen laid out the issue and explained that she had tried to counter the increase that Congress knew was coming, but a deal could not be made. Her solution is the Buffet Rule. The Buffet Rule raising taxes on the highest tax bracket (roughly those making over $1,000,000 a year). I asked the Congresswoman if that increase would be enough to finance keeping the rates froze at 3.4% and she said that it was, but that was not the only issue at hand. She explained we need tax fairness where the rich are taxed at an equivalent rate to lessen to strain on the middle class.

Here is a clip from the event. I will be posting as much footage as my hard drive allows from events in the future.

Neumann vs. Baldwin

This Thursday Mark Neumann responded to Baldwin's challenge over student loans. Student loan rates are set to double from 3.4% to 6.8% this July and Congresswoman Baldwin is touring schools across the state speaking out against the rise. Mark Neumann went to her congressional office in Madison to address her challenge. He gave the party line response of "conservatives want to cut spending and liberals want to raise taxes". While he did not give a concrete plan on how to freeze current interest rates he did turn and attack Baldwin. Neumann handed out a press release saying that the Congresswomen voted for the legislation that is responsible for the increased rate. It is a sunset bill that had temporarily lowered the rate. A sunset bill is one that has a set termination date. At that set time the bill expires. When asked if he would vote for any temporary sunset type bills in the future he said he would not .

Hovde and the Debt

Eric Hovde announced his economic plan on Tuesday with events in Green Bay and Waunakee. I was able to attend the Waunakee event and recorded his speech (video below). For the most part it was the typical conservative economic message: getting rid of debt, Obamacare etc. His eight point plan is:

1. Defeating the debt and balancing the budget;
2. Reforming America's broken tax code;
3. Deregulating our economy;
4. Reforming the Federal Reserve;
5. Reforming the Financial  Reserve;
6. Repealing and replacing ObamaCare;
7. Achieving true energy independence; and
8. Ending crony capitalism

Press conferences and media stunts are fine but I am looking forward to having a debate between the four republicans in the field. Meanwhile Tammy Baldwin is able to fundraise and build her structure as she runs unopposed. November will sure be interesting.