Just What the Doctor Ordered

Bill Clinton will be visiting the Badger State tomorrow to campaign for Tom Barrett. Barrett has been seriously lagging both in the polls and in donations. However momentum may finally be shifting back his way, just in time for the election. After a long and hard fought battle to begin the recall process, Barrett may once again have a real shot at beating governor Walker. One thing is sure, the people of Wisconsin will be happy that this election is over. The only real question is whether they will be happy with whoever wins.

Baldwin Goes Official

Tammy Baldwin is officially on the ballot. A couple days about she turned in over 10,000 signatures from all 72 counties in Wisconsin. This is quite an impressive display that shows organization in the congresswoman's camp. Baldwin does not face a serious challenger in the democrat primary coming up on August 14th. Baldwin was first elected to congress in 1999 and is one of only two candidates for the US senate seat who currently hold an elected office. The other is Jeff Fitzgerald, who faces three opponents in the republican primary. In the next few weeks Wisconsin's US senate race will switch to the front burner as the gubernatorial recall election will be over this tuesday.

Thompson's Healthcare Proposal

Yesterday I was able to attend a press event with former Governor Thompson, candidate for the US Senate. Like most republicans now a days he spoke out against Obamacare. However the big difference is that he offered a potential alternative. The problem with the healthcare system according to Thompson is:

1. Complex and confusing regulations that have destroyed the market,
2. The disconnection of economic realities and consumer choices; and
3. The lack of true competition among providers and insurers.

It will be interesting to see how the other candidates respond. The primary is on August 14th, and running against Thompson are Mark Neuman, Eric Hovde, and Jeff Fitzgerald. Tammy Baldwin is currently running unopposed on the democrat ticket. 

More jobs, or more unemployment?

Both Scott Walker and Tom Barrett want this election to be about jobs, according to their recent ads. Scott Walker is running a very simple ad right now. Under his leadership the state added over 30,000 ads. Barrett is countering with loose data about how the state actually lost jobs and that Wisconsin was in last place in terms of job creation. Who is right? Well Walker has released all of his data, and Barrett is keeping that information quite fluid. Obviously numbers can be massaged one way or the other by including or not including different groups, but what ultimately matters is who the public believes. Right now Walker's ad is running EVERYWHERE. It is short, simple, "I added jobs, here is the number" sort of thing. Unless Barrett can start dumping more money into tv Walker is going to win this news cycle.

Polls and Polls and Polls

Money is necessary to run a campaign, media spreads a candidate's message, but only polls can give a quick snapshot of how the race is shaping up. Currently all those polls have Walker in the lead by a small margin. Walker is currently winning 50-44 with likely voters and only 3% undecided. He is also leading 53-40 with independents. Even the Daily Kos, a left leaning pollster, has Walker up 50-45. Now polls are only a snapshot of how a sample of voters would vote at the time of the poll, but it is a fairly good indication. The race will be close, but Walker appears to have the upper hand. That gigantic fundraising lead has clearly paid off. In response Wisconsin Dems released a statement saying that they had polling showing Barrett closing the gap, but did not release any data. 3 weeks to go, time to step it up democrats.

An Anti-Climactic End?

Why would you work so hard to start a recall, occupy the state capital, spend millions of dollars on state senate recalls, and then give up in the last three weeks? While the Wisconsin Democratic party and candidates have not given up, it seems that the DNC itself may have. As of yesterday the DNC had not given the money that the state party has asked for. Wisconsin democrats asked for $500,000 for Barrett, but have yet to receive anything. $500,000! To put this in perspective Walker has raised 25 MILLION since January 2011. That $500,000 check doesn't seem like much in comparison. The Obama campaign was also contacted about giving money, they were not interested. Barrett has raised less than $900,000 since his campaign started. Come on democrats, finish the fight you started. Don’t give up now.

Rematch 2012

Tom Barrett is the Democratic nominee for Governor in the 2012 recall election. That pits him against Scott Walker, who narrowly beat him back in 2010. Milwaukee Mayor Barrett won the nomination quite handedly against Kathleen Falk, the former Dane County Executive. Most of the unions endorsed Falk, but it was not enough to save her from a 58%-34% defeat by Barrett. The question now is whether union support and money will follow Barrett to the June 5^th general election against Walker. There is only four weeks from the time of the primary until the general election. While anti-Walker support is strong, the unions must unify behind Barrett to defeat the sitting Governor. Walker will be touting his balanced budget and budget surplus to convince voters that he should remain in office.